The Financial Markets Committee within the Duma approved a toned-down draft of amendments to Russian Federation Law No. 161-FZ.
Of course, this does not remove geopolitical risk, which is quite difficult to call. Obviously, escalation of the Ukraine crisis would be troublesome for Qiwi shares and a de-escalation would be very good news for the shares.
The latest version of the bill appears to be largely focused on peer-to-peer payments, as it requires sender identification for any money sent to individuals, nonprofits, and foreign companies; however, ID is not required for online purchases within daily limits.
Users, under the new bill, can be identified via the telephone, by electronic means (information sent electronically), or via a cellphone (customers must be “identified” to get a cellphone in Russia); the original bill required customers to be identified in person.
The limits for unidentified consumers were raised back to prior levels (15,000 rubles/day; 40,000 rubles per month); the original bill called for a maximum of 5,000 rubles per day.
Qiwi does not charge for peer-to-peer transfers. Further, we believe that Qiwi’s relationships with mobile network operators position the company to identify its customers should the softened identification standards be maintained.
Further, continued growth of the Internet, smartphones, and e-commerce should drive revenue yield over time. Guidance for 2014 includes 20%-22% revenue growth and 25%- 27% net profit growth; long-term targets calls for at least 20% adjusted revenue growth and at least 25% adjusted net income growth.